Zion Williamson, hold or panic sell?
Patrick Stoddard
February 28, 2022
Zion Williamson, man, oh man, where do I even start on the current state of his card market. Zion and Ja Morant were two of the first athletes I was chasing when I re-entered the card market in early 2020.
Zion had become my ultimate personal example of FOMO. When I first re-entered the hobby, I would see NBA hall of fame rookie cards in high grades selling for around $100 on eBay. I knew those prices seemed low, but I was blinded by FOMO and owning those base Zion rookie cards like most others in the hobby. (I certainly did not have the assets to own anything special of Zions in 2020). Shoutout to the people that avoided the Zion hype train and other modern NBA base cards.
Since becoming the first overall pick of the 2019 NBA draft, Zion has morphed into the ultimate could-be athlete in the NBA. Zion’s number one issue is he is unable to stay on the court. With Zion currently sidelined for the 2021-22 NBA season and no clear timeline to return, his future and that of his cards are in uncertain times. This discounts the rumors about Zion wanting to play in New York in Madison Square Garden.
Zions market has been in decline after the peak price of $1,000, then leveled out, averaging about $700 from early March to mid-April. The Zions card market peaked in mid-December of 2020, where his 2019 Panini Prizm Base Rookie Card #248, PSA 10 (population of 20,00 +) averaged around $1,000. Since mid-April 2021, Zion’s card market has been steadily declining. His Prizm base Rookie PSA 10 now sells for just under $200, with a PSA 9 averaging slightly over $50.
So, what should you do if you are one of the thousands of people holding Zion cards?
People holding Zion cards can hold or sell their cards as usual sports card options. (I had held a few Prizm bases, Donruss Rated Rookies, and some Mosaics, nothing special). Collectors of Zion could go the route I personally took, and panic sell all their Zions for literal pennies on the dollar.
However, that is probably the wrong choice in the long term; I will never complain about turning an underwater asset into cash to allow me to redistribute to other cards I want to buy. But common sense would dictate that I ride this wave of panic out and wait to sell until Zion plays again (whenever that day is).
It is improbable that Zion never plays another game in the NBA, and if you believe that, you should probably sell immediately. In my opinion, the most likely course of outcome is the New Orleans Pelicans shut Zion down for the remainder of the 2021-22 NBA season. Unless the Pelicans make a surprising playoff push and wish Zion to help them possibly play their way out of the play-in tournament. However, I would guess we do not see Zion again until the 2022-23 NBA season or preseason.
Zion’s uncertain timeline for his return brings me to my opinion on when people should sell their Zions if they wish to offload their cards of his. We have seen this numerous times; Zion will play 10 minutes in the preseason and absolutely dominate. Or in his first game of the regular season, he will post a double-double with a monster dunks. These possible scenarios will make the Zions card market get hyped, and Zion card prices will rise in value. Maybe the value will even begin to trickle back up when rumors come out of Zion’s return timetable?
Suppose you can hold your Zion cards until Zion plays another NBA game again. I believe that would be the smartest play, as stated previously, though if you wish to offload your Zions to buy more cards immediately like I did, no harm in that option either. But I believe waiting until Zion plays in an NBA game for your profit margins will be the best strategy.
It is worth noting that if you are a Zion believer and believe he will not turn out like Greg Oden or other various NBA big men whose careers were cut short by injuries, then now is no better time to buy. According to Card Ladder, Zion cards average around $20K in sales volume daily. So, people are still buying Zion cards. Not everyone is selling. Card Ladder also shows that serial numbered, and autographed Zion cards are selling for record lows. So, if you believe in Zion, there may never to a better time to scoop up higher-class Zion cards.
In conclusion, if you want to move on from your Zion cards, I would recommend waiting until he plays in an NBA game to salvage some of the money you spent when buying Zion cards.
All card market statistics and data come via Cardladder.com unless otherwise noted.
