How to avoid FOMO in the sports card hobby.
Patrick Stoddard
February 28, 2022
What is FOMO?
FOMO (fear of missing out) and FOMO is what appears to drive the short-term sports card industry.
We see FOMO with every new single sports card product release and debut. Time and time again, a new product is released. Say a product that has just been released, like 2022 Topps Series 1 Baseball. 2022 Topps Series 1 Baseball is the annual Topps release of their flagship product. Unlike Topps Chrome or other foil card products, the cards are your typical paper card.
2022 Topps Series 1 Baseball is a fine product; Topps has been producing cards since 1951. By now, buyers know what to expect out of Topps Series 1 Baseball products. The hobby boxes seem to be on sale on eBay from $129.99 to $150. Which I feel is a reasonable price for the product, a tad high, but not unreasonable.
The factor of FOMO is typically the individual cards in the products. For 2022 Topps Series 1 Baseball, the chase card currently seems to be the 2022 Wander Franco base Rookie Card #215 of the Tampa Bay Rays. Wander Franco by many baseball experts is predicted to have an outstanding rookie season, thus making him a good buy right now, right?
Wrong
Raw copies of 2022 Topps Series 1 Wander Franco #215 are available to buy now on eBay for between $15-$20. Looking at the eBay completed listing of this card, $15-$20 seems to be the going rate for buying this card raw. If you believe Wander Franco is set to become one of the hottest names in baseball, that is not a terrible price. Inevitably those card prices will most likely drop down to between $5-$10 a card. So, buying Wander Franco base rookie cards is not a massive overpay.
The danger is when the marketplaces like eBay or others will become flooded by the wave of Wander Franco cards graded by grading companies such as PSA, BGS, or SGC. Completed listing of 2022 Topps Series 1 Baseball Wander Franco #215 PSA 10 range from anywhere from $100-$500.
As with every hot card in a new product release, the first wave of cards hitting the market from reputable grading companies will go anywhere from 2x-10x their accurate prices. Early buyers of initial cards graded from new releases always massively overpay for the cards’ prices in a matter of weeks or months.
Let’s look at Mac Jones, the quarterback of the New England Patriots. Mac Jones has become one of the faces of FOMO in the hobby.
2021 Donruss Football Mac Jones #255 first hit the market in early September of 2021. Raw versions of his base Donruss card hit highs of over $50, while PSA 10 copies hit highs of $3,000. Want to know what those cards’ average prices are now?
According to Card Ladder, the 2021 Donruss Football Mac Jones #255 sells for around $13 as of the time this article was written. The PSA 10 version now sells on average for $205. To recap, the raw version once went to over $50 and now sells for $13, and the PSA 10 sells for $205 down from $3,000.
What are the causes of these massive price swings? FOMO.
Suppose buyers can successfully avoid FOMO, especially when new product is released, or documentaries like “The Last Dance” that sent Michael Jordan card prices soaring only for them to predictably fall off. In that case, buyers can avoid massively overpaying for cards they want to collect or invest in.
I do not believe FOMO significantly affects hobby boxes, retail packs, etc. FOMO does play a significant role in newly released individual cards from new products. Therefore, I would exercise caution when chasing induvial cards from newly released products. Not that you can not chase individual players and cards. Just that buyers should be aware the card they purchased from a recently released product could drop off significantly in value in a short amount of time. Leaving them with a card they have paid 2x-5x the cost of and leaving them with a bitter taste in their mouth.
I would recommend more often than not avoid buying the first couple of waves of freshly graded cards back from grading companies. These cards are sure to be grossly overpriced and will undoubtedly leave you in the red with your current asset.
Exercise caution, patience, and a bit of common sense can help protect sports cards collectors from FOMO. Not to say I am above FOMO, I certainly am not. I do not believe many of us could be sports card collectors without FOMO. We all just need to do better when addressing our individual FOMO.
Finally, I am not trashing the flippers of new products; I love ripping fresh products and listing the hot rookies on eBay for 2x-5x their eventual average prices. My typical experience of pulling fresh products is keeping all my Detroit guys then selling everyone else.
Unless otherwise noted, all card market statistics and data come via Cardladder.com or eBay.com.
