FOMO Alert - Ja Morant
Patrick Stoddard
March 1, 2022
After recording a career-high 52-point game (and a Memphis Grizzles new franchise record) on Monday against the San Antonio Spurs, Ja Morant seemed to have cemented his status of belonging in the NBA’s top 10-20 elite players. This highlight reel performance included monster dunks and buzzer-beating three-pointers.
Morant also is coming off his first NBA all-star game nomination, appearing in the 2022 NBA all-star game. According to several writers from ESPN, Morant is in many analysts’ top five players for the NBA MVP race. The consensus I have gathered seems to be Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all ranked ahead of Morant in the MVP race currently. With Morant seemingly settled in the fourth to fifth spot for MVP.
With all the current hype around Ja Morant, Morant is undoubtedly a must-buy in the hobby of the sports cards, right? Not so fast; let’s consider some factors to see if you should be buying Ja Morant right now.
Morant seems to be quite a distance away from MVP candidates Jokic and Embiid, from various NBA insiders. Morant seems capable of catching up to Giannis in the MVP race, especially with the Milwaukee Bucks play falling off as of late. However, could someone like Luka Doncic surge ahead and catch up to Morant in the MVP race? He certainly could.
Ja Morant is almost certain to make one of the three All-NBA teams, however, players being named to All-NBA teams do not seem to cause card prices to increase like players being named to the all-star game. Even though being named to the All-NBA team is a much higher prestige. With Morant’s chances of winning the MVP unlikely, how much farther can his card process go up before declining?
The injury risk is always high with Ja Morant as he is a highflyer and routinely jumps to electrifying heights. As every NBA television analyst seems to say, they worry about his injury risk as he throws himself all over the court without regard to his safety. So, Morant staying healthy is not guaranteed either.
The Memphis Grizzlies currently sit third in the playoff standings. With the Phoenix Suns seemingly the favorites to come out of the Western Conference, and the Eastern Conference expected to be a total blood bath. How far can the Memphis Grizzles realistically go in the NBA playoffs?
The Grizzlies are a young, scrappy, talented, and hungry team. I would struggle to imagine them beating the Pheonix Suns or a full-strength Golden State Warriors team. The downside is all their players are essentially untested in the playoffs. At the same time, I could see the Grizzlies knocking off lower-ranked Western Conference teams.
Suppose the Grizzlies do beat the Suns or the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. Can you see them beating the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Milwaukee Bucks, Brooklyn Nets, etc., in the NBA finals? (If you do, I would recommend buying Ja Morant immediately and maybe scooping up teammates Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane).
Speaking of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, do either of those players strike you as forming a big three with Morant in the playoffs, or is either one of Jackson Jr. or Bane an elite number two option. I do not get the sense that those players are elite number two options. That is why I do not see the Grizzlies making a finals run this year, but again, you never know.
So, if Morant is unlikely to win MVP, the Grizzlies are unlikely to win the NBA Championship this year. How much more does Ja Morant stand to gain this season? I would argue he does not stand to gain much else this season in terms of rising card prices and to sustain themselves for the future.
According to Card Ladder, Ja Morant’s 2019 Panini Prizm base rookie card PSA 10 #249 is currently averaging $250.
Morant’s cards have been slightly rising since the beginning of the new year, but not spiking. Not spiking is good, but his cards have been growing. Even with Morant having a spectacular season, Ja Morant’s card prices have stayed in the $200-$275 range since June 2021.
If Morant does not win MVP or the Grizzlies do not make an NBA Finals run, do you see Morant’s card prices continuing to rise or staying around the $250 mark. Again, I do not see Morant’s card prices sustaining this current price increase.
Therefore, I would recommend avoiding the FOMO surrounding Ja Morant currently and waiting to buy his cards until a few weeks after the NBA season conclusion. Typically, NBA sport card prices hit low a few weeks after the NBA finals conclusion or a few weeks after the draft as card buyers focus on the next class of rookies.
Sports card collectors may be wise to avoid Ja Morant for the remainder of the 2021-22 NBA season and monitor his prices. I will buy Morant’s cards when his prices drop off from their current levels. I am a collector of Ja Morant and look forward to collecting many more of his cards in the future. But I am trying to avoid the FOMO around Morant and scoop up his cards over this upcoming summer for lower prices.
All data courtesy of Cardladder.com
