A cautionary tale of young QBs returning to the Super Bowl
Patrick Stoddard
March 19, 2022
In his second NFL season, Joe Burrow just made a Super Bowl, while his lower-end card prices have predictably gone down after the Super Bowls' conclusion. Burrow's rarer higher-end cards have been seen increases in prices lately. Most likely as buyers of Burrow's higher-end cards believe Burrow can be on his way to becoming an all-time great and returning to more Super Bowls.
Burrow very well could become an all-time great and make multiple return visits to the Superbowl. His winning a championship at LSU and making a Super Bowl in his second pro season support Burrow's argument to return to the Super Bowl. Burrow has what I cannot quantify with statistics. Burrow seems to have that "it" factor; he is by all accounts an excellent leader of men.
On the other hand, Burrow could never return to the Superbowl again. Burrow also could become a great Quarterback (QB) of his generation but never become one of the all-time greats.
Burrow joined QBs Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Colin Kaepernick, and Russel Wilson as the only QBs to lead their team to a Super Bowl in their second pro season.
Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are enshrined in the NFL Hall of Fame. Tom Brady is locked into enshrinement in the hall. Ben Roethlisberger and Russel Wilson seem destined also to make the Hall of Fame. Colin Kaepernick is the only QB listed not to make the Hall of Fame or seem destined for it.
What if Joe Burrow becomes Dan Marino?
Marino is acknowledged as an all-time great; however, experts always debate his ranking in the best QBs of all time. Marino made it to the Super Bowl in his second season, lost, and never returned.
If Burrow never makes it back to another Super Bowl, could he go down as an all-time great?
Burrow could go down as an all-time great if he never returns to the Super Bowl. But doing so would require Burrow to stay relatively healthy and put-up high passing statistics for 10-15 more NFL seasons. Unlike many other QBs entering the NFL, Burrow entered the at 24 years old. On average, about two years older than your typical top QB draft prospect, Burrow played in the NCAA for five years.
Burrows's slightly advanced age compared to his peers leaves him at a slight disadvantage. However, Kurt Warner entered the NFL at age 28 and still made the Hall of Fame. So age may not be a huge factor for determining Burrows's chances at becoming an all-time great QB.
Injuries have already played a part in Burrows's NFL career. According to Michael David Smith of Yahoo, Burrow was sacked 70 times in the season and postseason; the third-most ever sack amount for a QB. Burrow suffered a torn ACL in November of the 2020-21 NFL season. The Cincinnati Bengals need to protect Joe Burrow at all costs this next NFL season. Many analysts predict the Bengals to sign offensive linemen in NFL free agency and address the position in the NFL draft.
As NFL fans know all too well, just because an NFL team emphasizes investing in one position group does not mean that position group is guaranteed to improve. Free agents can underperform, and draft prospects can become draft busts. Burrow also plays the game recklessly and seems to relish taking big hits and popping right back up as if the impacts didn't faze him.
Burrow may absorb big hits while being 25 and not adversely affected but can Burrow absorb bone-crushing hits while he is in his early 30s without adversely affecting him. Burrow will need to change the way he plays, hopefully, sooner rather than later, to increase his chance of longevity in the NFL.
Suppose Burrow stays healthy and continues to put up monster passing statistics. One would assume Burrow would be competing for a Super Bowl annually. Not so fast, the Cincinnati Bengals are notorious for being a cheap franchise unwilling to spend money on improving their team. Their owner, Mike Brown, is known for being hesitant to spend big on the Bengals. Horror stories in recent years have emerged of Bengals players in past years having to pay for items like Gatorade at practice. The Bengals are regularly called out for having ridiculously small scouting and front office personal units compared to other NFL teams.
The Cincinnati Bengals have appeared in three Super Bowls, 1982, 1989, and 2022. The Bengals have never won the Super Bowl either. Burrows's card buyers should keep in mind that Burrow plays for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are notorious for being cheap and never winning a Super Bowl. (As a Detroit Lions fan, I am envious of the Bengal's three Super Bowl appearances).
Buyers should be cautious when jumping on hot young QB rookie cards. Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray are hot QBs who have never made it to the Super Bowl. Buyers need to be aware that those QBs may never make it; if that is the case, how relevant will they become in the ethos of NFL history?
Joe Burrow made it to the Super Bowl in his second professional season. But as said above, what if he never makes it back to another Super Bowl? Following the career path of someone like Dan Marino.
Patrick Mahomes looked like he was about to start a Kansas City Chiefs dynasty when they beat the 49ers in 2020. Mahomes may very well win multiple more Super Bowls, but with the AFC becoming more and more stacked. Would it be insane to suggest Mahomes may never win another Super Bowl? I would not say it would be insane to say that. The sports cards hobby already crowned Mahomes as the next Tom Brady; how good does that anointment look right now?
In the sports card’s hobby, we all get caught up in the hype of young QBs who we predict may make multiple Super Bowls; they very well could. But don't forget that there have already been multiple Super Bowl-winning QBs whose card prices are even or below these young hot QBs who may never have the career of a Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, or Peyton Manning.
Disclaimer: I'm a paying customer of Card Ladder. This content is for informational and/or entertainment purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, investment, financial, or other advice.
