Eight reasons to exercise caution in collecting Luka Doncic cards
Patrick Stoddard
May 15, 2022
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
Doncic is my clear-cut number one player I would like to invest in for the long term. Doncic is only 23 years old, and with already being an arguably top-five NBA player already, Doncic seems like someone the NBA could get behind with advertising and promotion to make Doncic the new face of the NBA. With Lebron James passing the torch down to younger players as the current best NBA players, Doncic seems prime to compete with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, and your pick of other perennial MVP players to become the new face of the NBA.
Now the downsides to me of investing in Doncic are the following things.
1. His card population count is insanely high compared to players whose rookie cards debuted in 2008 to 2016. 2018-19 Luka Doncic rookie cards already have hundreds of thousands of graded copies, with even more raw copies still sitting in people's hands.
2. Dallas is a mid-size market and not the prime NBA city markets of New York City, Los Angeles, Miami, or Chicago. Which can cause fewer NBA fan's eyes on Doncic, which means his card prices don't grow as quickly as some would like.
3. Doncic complains to the refs during NBA games non-stop; TV announcers often joke if the camera does not show Doncic on-screen. Doncic is most likely complaining to a referee about a perceived grievance. The camera then cuts to Doncic complaining to the referee about something. Doncic entered the NBA in 2018-19 and is already perceived by the national media and NBA fans as a whiner/complainer. Being a whiner/complainer may make many fans grow weary of Doncic and not root for him due to his excessive complaining to the refs.
4. Doncic is European and speaks decent but not excellent English while maintaining a heavy Slovenian accent. ESPN host Stephen A. Smith even alluded that Doncic, a foreign-born player who does not speak great English, may limit his marketability and make it hard for the NBA to make him the face of their league.
5. Doncic card prices are already extremely high, alongside the high population counts of Doncic cards. Doncic's card prices already have one to two MVP awards and NBA Championships baked into his card pricing (in my opinion). Even if Doncic eventually wins an MVP or an NBA Championship (which is not a certainty), how much higher can Doncic's card prices go without shooting to the moon only to come crashing down?
6. Doncic also has no true costar to help him achieve sustained NBA playoff success or start a Mavericks dynasty. Suppose Doncic stays in Dallas (which, given the recent history of superstars staying with their original teams, means him staying in Dallas his whole career is unlikely). For Doncic to achieve repeat NBA playoff success, I think Dallas eventually has to land an actual number two player to help Doncic lead Dallas to perennial success.
7. Doncic seems to be an helio-centric player on offense. Helio-centric teams typically do not have playoff success in recent years. A la the James Harden Houston Rocket years, or even the Philedhelpiiha 76ers with Joel Embiid, the Portland Trailblazers with Damian Lillard, or the Oklahoma City Thunder with Russell Westbrook. In recent NBA playoffs, NBA teams that employ an helio-centric offense where just one superstar is the hub of the entire offense have never made the NBA Championship.
8. Doncic is not a two-way player. Dallas head coach Jason Kidd seems to have gotten Doncic to buy into the team's defensive schemes this NBA season. Doncic is still, at best, a net neutral defender, despite being a 6' 9" Point Guard. Typically, great NBA superstars are two-way players who can positively impact both ends of the court. Doncic could be the best offensive player in the NBA right now. But being an average defender could cost him future 1st team All-NBA votes, MVP votes, and Dallas playoff success. Doncic has the size and speed to become a better defender, and if Doncic ever decides to become an above-average defender, he could become a truly great two-way player.
My thoughts on people wishing to collect or invest in Luka Doncic boil down to this,
- There is no rush to collect Doncic cards; he is 23 and still has many years of playing in front of him. I believe his card prices to be too high already, and with the high pricing, I don't see another astronomical rise in his card pricing.
- Savvy investors will invest in low population cards such as rookie parallel cards or serial numbered cards. I don't see base rookie cards of Doncic growing by large margins in the upcoming years. However, rarer Doncic cards could shoot up in pricing if he wins MVP or leads Dallas to an NBA Championship.
Disclaimer: I'm a paying customer of Card Ladder. This content is for informational and/or entertainment purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, investment, financial, or other advice.
