Patrick Stoddard

March 3, 2022

The Denver Nuggets are starting to be mentioned as a sleeper team to make an NBA Finals run in the Western Conference. With the reports of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter possible to return from injury before the playoffs begin, could the Denver Nuggets make a deep playoff push catapulting card prices of the Nuggets players upward?

First, let’s examine players on the Denver Nuggets whose cards are worth knowing as of now. The clear star on the Nuggets is Nikola Jokic, the reigning NBA MVP. The second tier of the Nuggets is occupied by Jamal Murray, who is currently rehabbing an ACL injury that occurred almost a year ago. The other second-tier occupant is Michael Porter Jr., recovering from a back injury and regarded as injury-prone. The third tier is Aaron Gordon, but he seems to have established himself as a good, not great player, so the article won’t focus on his card prices.

Nikola Jokic is the reigning NBA MVP and has almost been single-handedly dragging the Denver Nuggets into the NBA playoffs for the entire season. Jokic’s 2015 Panini Prizm base rookie card PSA 10 is going for around $600 via Card Ladder and has a population of 714.

Michael Porter Jr. is recovering from back surgery. With this being one of the multiple injuries since entering the NBA in 2018, Porter Jr. now carries injury-prone designation in most NBA circles. His 2018 Panini Prizm base rookie card PSA 10 is averaging $40 with a population of 6,172.

Porter Jr. entered the NBA season with a fair amount of hype, and his base Prizm rookie card in a PSA 10 was averaging between $130-$150. What caused the mass drop in his card prices? The back injury he sustained is not his first back injury.

After Porter Jr. was injured shortly after the start of the current NBA season, many holders of his cards panicked and sold off all their Porter’s at massive losses. (Myself being one of these people).

Looking at the graph, we can see the point in time when Porter Jr.’s card prices fell off a cliff. That massive drop in prices coincided with his injury.

Jamal Murray, who, as said before, is recovering from an ACL injury and, if rumors are too believed, is close to returning to play. His 2016 Panini Prizm base rookie card PSA 10 is going for $130 currently.

Despite Murray’s injury, his card prices have stayed relatively level; compared to Porter Jr.’s card prices, Murray’s card prices experienced no steep drop-off.

With Murray and Porter Jr. rumored to be back for the Nuggets in time for the playoffs and Jokic considered a top-three MVP candidate for this current season, what should one do about buying or selling the above-mentioned player’s cards?

Regarding Porter Jr., I would speculate we will see his card prices begin to rise as the rumors grow stronger about his return. Upon Porter Jr.s’s return, one could expect his prices, which had just dove off a cliff, to begin climbing back up the cliff, even slightly. Porter Jr.’s essentially recording low prices could warrant making him a buy. However, I would caution potential buyers to remember why his prices are currently so low.

What happens if Porter Jr. has a spectacular playoff but then is injured for most of the next NBA season, affirming many who believe he is injury-prone. For myself, I would feel comfortable buying Porter Jr. low and then flipping him come to the playoffs; I would exercise caution for sports card collectors looking to hold long term.

Jamal Murray is 25 years old, and when healthy, I think many would agree he is somewhere between a top 5 to 10 guard in the Western Conference. But with all the young and upcoming future superstars in the West like Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Donovan Mitchell, and Anthony Edwards. How much higher can Murray’s prices go?

Hype and FOMO could leave Murray to end up being forgotten among the Western Conference’s best guards. If you believe Murray can establish himself as a top guard in the NBA and could make a run for the NBA Hall of Fame, then Murray’s current prices could make him a great buy. But if you see Murray making a few NBA all-star games and having a good career where people remember him fondly but know he was never an all-time great. I am unsure if his card prices really have much room to grow.

Nikola Jokic is the Denver Nugget who intrigues me the most with the return of Porter Jr. and Murray. Jokic is the regaining MVP and has a very good shot this year to repeat as the MVP again. If the Denver Nuggets do make a deep playoff run this season, I think Jokic stands the most to gain.

Jokic’s prices for many of his cards are high, but not extremely high given he is coming off an MVP season. Jokic seems not to get as much hobby love for some reason, maybe because he is playing in Denver. Or the stereotype that big men do not get as much hobby love as guards of forwards could affect him too.

Whatever the case against Jokic, if the Denver Nuggets do make an NBA Finals run and god-forbid Jokic wins back-to-back MVPs Jokic’s prices could skyrocket.

Jokic’s good cards are probably outpriced of the average card collector. However, Jokic’s 2015 Panini Prizm base rookie card PSA 9 with a population of 1,145 is averaging $175 on Card Ladder. His 2015 Panini Donruss base Rated Rookie card PSA 10 is selling for just under $400, which may seem high, but it only has a population of 108.

Compared to other players in Jokic’s stratosphere like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jokic’s card prices are often half or one-third the value of other NBA superstars. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2013 Panini Prizm base rookie card sells for $1,500 in a PSA 10, and $630 in a PSA 9.

Jokic’s 2015 Panini Prizm base rookie card in a PSA 10 goes for around $610, and the PSA 9 for $180. Jokic’s cards are also far less graded than Giannis’s cards, making them harder to find.

The difference between Giannis and Jokic is Giannis won two MVPs compared to Jokic’s one, and Giannis won an NBA Championship. Jokic is not guaranteed to win an NBA Championship or even another MVP, but he is capable.

With the Denver Nuggets gaining hype as dark horses in the NBA Western Conference and Jokic threatening for another MVP, I believe the biggest winner out of the Denver Nuggets is not the two returning from injury players in Porter Jr. and Murray, but Jokic. With Jokic’s not crazy high prices yet, and a low population of graded cards compared to other superstars, Jokic may be a sneaky play in the sports card hobby.

All data, statistics, and graphs are via Cardladder.com

Disclaimer: I’m a paying customer of Card Ladder. This content is for informational and/or entertainment purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, investment, financial, or other advice.